FAMINE MORTALITY IN THE EIGHTEENTH AND NINETEENTH CENTURIES

Throughout most of history, Iceland has been prone to severe subsistence crises. This article investigates the most severe famines of the 18th- and 19th-centuries affecting all or most parts of Iceland. We use quantitative data to identify famines, construct a famine chronology, and estimate the human fatalities they caused. Famine is defined here as an extreme crisis of access to food that results in a significant number of deaths from starvation. Famine threshold is set at an annual mortality rate of 1/10,000 inhabitants per day in accordance with Howe’s og Devereux’s magnitude scale. By this definition, Icelanders suffered five famines in the 18th century and two in the 19th century. Comparing the incidence and duration of famines between the Nordic countries during this period we find that Denmark and Iceland had the highest number of famine episodes, seven each, while Iceland endured the greatest number of famine years, 24 in all compared to between 8 and 12 years in the other Nordic countries. Famine-related mortality rates are determined by estimating numbers of excess deaths. However, this method is problematic as famines are often accompanied by epidemics. Accurate data on births and deaths only goes back to 1734, making it impossible to estimate the number of people prior to that date. We argue, however, that the 1696–1702 famine, should be included among the most severe famines of the period in question. Analysis of the six 18th- and 19th-century famines for which data is available suggests that famine deaths totalled nearly 25,000. Such loss of life was greatest by far during The Haze Famine 1783–1785 (known as móðu harðindin), followed in severity by the 1752–1758 famine. In the 19th century, Icelanders gradually moved away from the pre-industrial demographic regime characterised by high proportion of unmarried people, limited food supply and frequent demographic shocks. The famine of 1859–1862 was the last famine in Iceland marking a distinctive break with the past. The transition was a consequence of a number of social and economic improvements which enabled Icelanders to increase food production, raise living standards and greatly accelerate the process of international integration.